What does it mean for Goa when rain gods smile on it?

On July 21, 2024, Goa crossed the 100-inch mark of rainfall for the season, possibly recording the fastest possible time to achieve this. Goa’s rainfall for the season – the months of June, July, August and September – is considered normal when it is between 100 to 120 inches and Goa has met that base target in July itself, with two entire months and 10 days of the season still ahead of it.

Either there will be a surfeit of rain this season or we could get some dry weeks during August and September. It is still early to forecast that and we will just have to wait.

The rainfall has now decreased, though the skies remain cloudy and sudden brief showers accompanied by gusty winds do drench the State as does a light drizzle that persists. The fury, however, appears to be well past us. And fury it was, as Goa experienced quite a disastrous time for the two weeks that the rain spell lasted, with red, orange and yellow alerts issued and the colours changing quite frequently, never allowing people to plan in advance.

The rainfall was such that the dams overflowed and the gates had to be opened, trees were uprooted, landslides were reported, houses were damaged, people lost their lives, low-lying areas were inundated, roads were flooded and two rain holidays were announced for schools. All in the span of a little over two weeks. Rarely has Goa experienced such damage in so short a time.

But would there be any positives? After receiving such large amounts of rainfall, has the rain water been stored so that the State has not only enough for the months ahead but also stores some for the very dry months? As it continued to rain over the past two weeks, it brought to mind the statement of a minister who has suggested, more than once, that Goa could build dams to store water and export it to where it is required, earning some much-needed foreign exchange.

The hope is that enough has been stored to meet the water needs of the people of the State, without them having to call in private water tankers that supply water from borewells, depleting the ground water table and charging a steep amount. If there has been any major rainwater harvesting projects undertaken, then this rain spell should have brought results.

On the other hand, the copious amounts of rain gave climate change cynics some flawed ammunition to attempt to counter the effects of global warming. One such climate change detractor, mockingly asked me what I had to say about the rainfall this year in relation to climate change. And how it could be explained.

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It is not merely a rise in temperatures or less rainfall that demotes it. Climate change refers to extreme weather events that can include the kind of rainfall Goa experienced this July. Let’s not ignore it. This was an aberration.

A study by Council on Energy, Environment and Water, on the changing monsoon patterns, found that while there was significant declining trends in rainfall over Kerala, the Western Ghats, parts of central India, and select northeastern states, conversely, regions such as Gujarat, the Konkan coast, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir, and the east coast experienced a significant increase in rainfall.

The study further said, ‘The risks associated with climate change exhibit nonlinear characteristics, wherein the impacts can rapidly escalate despite the shifts in average conditions being gradual. Altered rainfall patterns give rise to both chronic and acute risks for ecosystems. Chronic risks emerge through gradual shifts such as reduced mean rainfall, while acute risks stem from sudden, intense events such as extreme rainfall and prolonged dry spells.’

Just because Goa has received its normal rainfall, or perhaps by the end of the season may have received more than the normal, should not be reason to ignore climate change, which is a long term phenomenon and is still being studied.

Since the State has already crossed the 100-inch mark, we could be in for some prolonged dry spells in the coming two months of the monsoon season, which again would be an aberration in the monsoon pattern. The sun is not yet shining brightly and the dry spell has not started, but indications are that the rain will be taking a break. A disruption in the rainfall pattern is an indication of climate change.